Dr. Anthony Fauci, the longtime director for the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases and emerging face of American leadership in the fight against the virus, estimated that the U.S. may see between 100,000 and 200,000 deaths from COVID-19, the deadly disease caused by the novel coronavirus. A deeply-respected authority on viral diseases, Fauci assisted in guiding the federal response to SARS, MERS, Ebola and now the novel coronavirus.

Fauci cautioned that these estimates are based on models and a model is only as accurate as the assumptions that go into building it. An extreme worst-case situation in which the coronavirus causes millions of American deaths remains “not impossible but very, very unlikely.”

“Whenever the models come in, they give a worst-case scenario and a best-case scenario,” Fauci told CNN’s Jake Tapper. “Generally, the reality is somewhere in the middle. I’ve never seen a model of the diseases that I’ve dealt with where the worst case actually came out. They always overshoot.”

Fauci believes that the U.S. is likely going to have “millions of cases” but broadly cautioned against relying on modeling estimates while still stressing the extreme risk the virus poses.

Pursuant to the authority granted in Section 381.00315(1), Florida Statutes, and Executive Order 20-83, I, Scott A. Rivkees, M.D., as State Surgeon General and State Health Officer, determine that a public health advisory is necessary as a result of COVID-19 to protect the public health and safety, and hereby issue the following Public Health Advisory.

VULNERABLE POPULATIONS

All individuals over the age of 65 and all individuals of any age with high-risk conditions should remain in their residence and take all measures to limit the risk of exposure to COVID- 19. These measures include, but are not limited to: limiting contact with all persons outside of the home and distancing any unavoidable contact by a minimum of six feet; washing hands often with soap and water for at least 20 seconds, or using hand sanitizer with at least 60% alcohol; avoiding unnecessary touching of eyes, nose, and mouth, and washing hands prior to doing so; and cleaning and disinfecting high-touch surfaces, including entryway door handles.

High-risk conditions include, but are not limited to: chronic lung disease; moderate to severe asthma; serious heart conditions; immunocompromised status (as a result of cancer treatment, bone marrow or organ transplant, immune deficiencies, poorly controlled HIV or AIDS, or prolonged use of corticosteroids and other immune weakening medications); cancer; severe obesity (body mass index [BMI]>40); diabetes; renal failure; and liver disease.

GATHERINGS OF PRIVATE CITIZENS

All individuals should cease participation in social or recreational gatherings of more than 10 people. For all gatherings of fewer than 10 people, individuals should practice social distancing by maintaining a distance of at least six feet from each other.

DENSITY OF THE WORKFORCE

All business owners, supervisors, managers and others in charge of conducting business in the state of Florida should allow telework of employees to the extent that can be accomplished without significantly disrupting the ability to conduct business. Employers should make every effort to reduce the onsite workforce to 50% capacity, where possible, to the extent that reduction can be accomplished without significantly disrupting the ability to conduct business.

Issued this 25th day of March 2020, in Department of Health offices, Tallahassee, Leon County, Florida.

Alachua County Announces COVID-19 Community Resource Portal

​The Alachua County COVID-19 Community Resource Portal is for requesting assistance, asking questions, reporting people and businesses that are not following the Emergency Orders and appealing the Unessential Business designation. The site contains many useful tools and links. It is a work in progress and will be updated and improved daily. 

Victor Davis Hanson // National Review

More data is critical in understanding the virus in general and in particular its transmission in particular countries. Anyone who looks at rates of morality and lethality of influenza and related pneumonia, especially in the elderly and infirm, can be shocked at the wide variances between particular countries.  52

Reliable data alone should drive proper policy, especially given that any decision made henceforth in the present landscape of bad and worse choices can involve on the one hand greater viral death and morbidity, and on the other economic catastrophe with its own particular role in ensuring non-viral morbidity and death.

So, what we would like to know, it seems, are a few of numbers of which we are not often apprised:

• What is the percentage of negatives of all those tested?
• What are the percentages of those who request, or are given tests, who are showing some symptoms of illness or at least feel that they are in some way ill?

Read the full article here

Number of coronavirus cases in Alachua County hit 35 as of the latest update Sunday evening — more than doubling in two days.

The number of coronavirus cases in Alachua County jumped to 35 in the 6 p.m. report Sunday from the state Department of Health, more than doubling the number from Friday.

Florida now has 1,007 confirmed cases of coronavirus, with 29 of those in Alachua County.

On Saturday, Alachua County health officials confirmed that there is presumed comminity spread of the virus here, meaning people are contracting the virus from others in Alachua County, not just from traveling.

Four people in Alachua County are now hospitalized with COVID19, the diseased caused by the new coronavirus. Others are quarantined at home.

There are currently 768 positive cases in Florida residents and 62 positive cases in non-Florida residents.

Alachua County EMERGENCY ORDER NO. 2020-05, Dentists – No elective procedures and services

Dentists and those who practice under their license shall not perform any elective procedures and services until such time as a State of Emergency ceases to exist in Alachua County or this restriction is lifted in writing.

Read the full Order http://ow.ly/5zKQ50yRyma