BULLETIN Tropical Storm Isaias Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020 1100 AM AST Thu Jul 30 2020 ...ISAIAS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND GUSTY WINDS OVER PUERTO RICO... ....HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS SPREADING OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.1N 68.9W ABOUT 50 MI...75 KM SW OF PUNTA CANA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM SE OF PUERTO PLATA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Antigua has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for the British Virgin Islands. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra * U.S. Virgin Islands * Dominican Republic entire southern and northern coastlines * North coast of Haiti from Le Mole St Nicholas eastward to the northern border with the Dominican Republic * Turks and Caicos Islands * Southeastern Bahamas including the Acklins, Crooked Island, Long Cay, the Inaguas, Mayaguana, and the Ragged Islands * Central Bahamas, including Cat Island, the Exumas, Long Island, Rum Cay, and San Salvador A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Northwestern Bahamas including Andros Island, New Providence, Eleuthera, Abacos Islands, Berry Islands, Grand Bahamas Island, and Bimini Interests in Cuba and the Florida peninsula should monitor the progress of this system. Watches may be required for a portion of the Florida peninsula later today. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Isaias was located near latitude 18.1 North, longitude 68.9 West. Isaias is moving toward the northwest near 20 mph (31 km/h), and a west- northwestward to northwestward motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected over the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Isaias will move over Hispaniola today and move near the Southeastern Bahamas by tonight or early Friday. Isaias is forecast to be near the Central Bahamas Friday night and approach the Northwest Bahamas or southern Florida Friday night and Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight weakening is possible as Isaias moves over Hispaniola today. Re-strengthening is forecast on Friday and Friday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 310 miles (500 km) primarily to the north of the center. Tropical-storm-force winds are occuring along the southern coast of Puerto Rico. A Weatherflow station at Las Mareas, Puerto Rico, reported sustained winds of 45 mph (72 km/h) with a gust to 54 mph (87 km/h). A wind gust of 60 mph (96 km/h) was recently reported at Punta Cana on the eastern tip of the Dominican Republic. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Isaias can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml. WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue across portions of the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico through early afternoon. These conditions are spreading over portions of the Dominican Republic and Haiti within the warning area, and are expected to spread over the southeastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos later today. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Central Bahamas beginning Friday morning and are possible in the northwestern Bahamas beginning late Friday. RAINFALL: Isaias is expected to produce the following rain accumulations: Puerto Rico, Dominican Republic and northern Haiti: 4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches. Bahamas, Turks and Caicos: 4 to 8 inches. Cuba: 1 to 2 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 4 inches. These rainfall amounts will lead to life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides, as well as river flooding. Urban and small stream flooding is expected for the U.S. Virgin Islands, eastern and southwestern Puerto Rico, and Hispaniola. Heavy rains associated with Isaias may begin to affect South Florida Saturday morning. This rain could result in isolated flash and urban flooding, especially in low-lying and poorly drained areas. SURF: Swells generated by Isaias are affecting portions of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
Monthly Archives: July 2020
Tropical Storm Isaias. Advisory # 8A
BULLETIN Tropical Storm Isaias Intermediate Advisory Number 8A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020 800 AM AST Thu Jul 30 2020 ...ISAIAS CAUSING LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND HIGH WINDS OVER PUERTO RICO... SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.6N 68.5W ABOUT 125 MI...205 KM W OF PONCE PUERTO RICO ABOUT 105 MI...175 KM ESE OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra * U.S. Virgin Islands * British Virgin Islands * Dominican Republic entire southern and northern coastlines * North coast of Haiti from Le Mole St Nicholas eastward to the northern border with the Dominican Republic * Turks and Caicos Islands * Southeastern Bahamas including the Acklins, Crooked Island, Long Cay, the Inaguas, Mayaguana, and the Ragged Islands * Central Bahamas, including Cat Island, the Exumas, Long Island, Rum Cay, and San Salvador A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Northwestern Bahamas including Andros Island, New Providence, Eleuthera, Abacos Islands, Berry Islands, Grand Bahamas Island, and Bimini Interests in Cuba and the Florida peninsula should monitor the progress of this system. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Isaias was located near latitude 17.6 North, longitude 68.5 West. Isaias is moving toward the northwest near 20 mph (31 km/h), and a west-northwestward to northwestward motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected over the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Isaias will move over Hispaniola later today and near the Southeastern Bahamas by tonight or early Friday. Isaias is forecast to be near the Central Bahamas Friday night and approach the Northwest Bahamas or southern Florida Friday night and Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is anticipated until landfall in Dominican Republic later today, with re-strengthening forecast on Friday and Saturday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 415 miles (665 km) from the center. Tropical-storm-force winds are occuring along the southern coast of Puerto Rico. A Weatherflow station in Yabucoa Tanque de Agua reported sustained winds of 46 mph (74 km/h) with a gust to 56 mph (91 km/h). A Weatherflow station at Las Mareas reported sustained winds of 43 mph (69 km/h) with a gust to 54 mph (87 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Isaias can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml. WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue across portions of the U.S. and British Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico through this morning or early afternoon. These conditions are forecast to reach portions of the Dominican Republic and Haiti within the warning area later this morning, and the southeastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos this afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Central Bahamas beginning Friday morning and are possible in the northwestern Bahamas beginning late Friday. RAINFALL: Isaias is expected to produce the following rain accumulations: British and U.S. Virgin Islands and Turks and Caicos: 3 to 6 inches. Puerto Rico and northern Haiti: 3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches. Dominican Republic: 4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches. Bahamas: 4 to 8 inches. Cuba: 2 to 4 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches. These rainfall amounts will lead to life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides, as well as potential riverine flooding beginning today. Urban and small stream flooding is expected for the U.S. Virgin Islands, eastern Puerto Rico, and Hispaniola. SURF: Swells generated by Isaias are affecting portions of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
Potential Tropical Cyclone. Advisory # 6
BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020 500 PM AST Wed Jul 29 2020 ...HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.4N 65.6W ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM SSW OF ST. CROIX ABOUT 320 MI...510 KM ESE OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Antigua has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for Montserrat, St. Kitts, and Nevis. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra * U.S. Virgin Islands * British Virgin Islands * Anguilla * St. Martin and St. Barthelemy * Saba and St. Eustatius * St. Maarten * Dominican Republic entire southern and northern coastlines * North coast of Haiti from Le Mole St Nicholas eastward to the northern border with the Dominican Republic * Turks and Caicos Islands * Southeastern Bahamas including the Acklins, Crooked Island, Long Cay, the Inaguas, Mayaguana, and the Ragged Islands A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Central Bahamas, including Cat Island, the Exumas, Long Island, Rum Cay, and San Salvador Interests in the northwestern Bahamas and Cuba should monitor the progress of this system. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 16.4 North, longitude 65.6 West. The system is moving toward the west-northwest near 23 mph (37 km/h), and this general motion with a reduction in forward speed is expected over the next few days. On the forecast track, the system will pass south of Puerto Rico later tonight, near or over Hispaniola on Thursday, near eastern Cuba and the southeastern Bahamas on Friday, and approach the northwestern Bahamas and southern Florida Friday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some increase in strength is forecast through tonight, with weakening likely on Thursday due to land interaction. Some restrengthening is possible by this weekend. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for additional development, and a tropical storm is forecast to form tonight. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km) primarily to the north of the center. A wind gust of 52 mph (83 km/h) was recently reported at St. Thomas in the U.S. Virgin Islands. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml. WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue across portions of the Leeward Islands, the U.S. and British Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico through tonight. These conditions are forecast to reach portions of the Dominican Republic and Haiti within the warning area by late tonight or early Thursday, and the southeastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Thursday afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area on Friday. RAINFALL: The disturbance is expected to produce the following rain accumulations: Across the northern Leeward Islands, British and U.S. Virgin Islands: 3 to 6 inches. Across Puerto Rico: 3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches. Across the Dominican Republic, northern Haiti, and Turks and Caicos: 3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches. Across the Inagua Islands and southeastern Bahamas: 4 to 8 inches. These rainfall amounts may lead to life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides, as well as potential riverine flooding beginning today. Urban and small stream flooding is expected for the U.S. Virgin Islands and eastern Puerto Rico. SURF: Swells generated by Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine will be affecting portions of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico through Thursday. These swells are forecast to reach the north coast of the Dominican Republic, the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas tonight or Thursday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
Possible Tropical Cyclone. Advisory # 5
BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020 1100 AM AST Wed Jul 29 2020 ...HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.8N 63.7W ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM SSE OF ST. CROIX ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM SE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of the Bahamas has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the southeast Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands. The government of the Bahamas has also issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the central Bahamas. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra * U.S. Virgin Islands * British Virgin Islands * Antigua, Barbuda, Montserrat, St. Kitts, Nevis, and Anguilla * Guadeloupe, Martinique, St. Martin, and St. Barthelemy * Saba and St. Eustatius * St. Maarten * Dominican Republic from Cabo Caucedo eastward to Cabo Engano and then westward along the northern coast to the Dominican Republic/Haiti border * North coast of Haiti from Le Mole St Nicholas eastward to the northern border with the Dominican Republic * Turks and Caicos Islands * Southeastern Bahamas including the Acklins, Crooked Island, Long Cay, the Inaguas, Mayaguana, and the Ragged Islands A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Dominican Republic from the southern Haiti border eastward to Cabo Caucedo * Central Bahamas, including Cat Island, the Exumas, Long Island, Rum Cay, and San Salvador Interests in the northwestern Bahamas and Cuba should monitor the progress of this system. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 15.8 North, longitude 63.7 West. The system is moving toward the west-northwest near 23 mph (37 km/h), and this general motion with a reduction in forward speed is expected over the next few days. On the forecast track, the system will move near or just south of Puerto Rico later today and tonight, near or over Hispaniola on Thursday, and near or over eastern Cuba on Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some increase in strength is forecast through tonight, with weakening likely on Thursday due to land interaction. Some restrengthening is possible by this weekend. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for additional development, and a tropical storm is forecast to form later today or tonight. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km) primarily to the north and northeast of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are moving across portions of the Leeward Islands and will spread across the U.S. and British Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico this afternoon through Thursday morning. These conditions are forecast to reach portions of the Dominican Republic and Haiti within the warning area early Thursday, and the southeastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Thursday afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch areas on Thursday and Friday. RAINFALL: The disturbance is expected to produce the following rain accumulations: Across the northern Leeward Islands, British and U.S. Virgin Islands: 3 to 6 inches. Across Puerto Rico: 3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches. Across the Dominican Republic, northern Haiti, and Turks and Caicos: 3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches. Across the Inagua Islands: 4 to 8 inches, with isolated totals of 12 inches. These rainfall amounts may lead to life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides, as well as potential riverine flooding beginning today. Urban and small stream flooding is expected for the U.S. Virgin Islands and eastern Puerto Rico. SURF: Swells generated by Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine will be affecting portions of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico during the next day or two. These swells are forecast to reach the north coast of the Dominican Republic, the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas tonight or Thursday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
Possible Tropical Cyclone Cone of Uncertainty
Potential Tropical Cyclone Advisory 4A
WTNT34 KNHC 291143 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Intermediate Advisory Number 4A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020 800 AM AST Wed Jul 29 2020 ...HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS SPREADING OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.1N 62.1W ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM WSW OF DOMINICA ABOUT 350 MI...560 KM SE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Barbados has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for Dominica. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra * U.S. Virgin Islands * British Virgin Islands * Antigua, Barbuda, Montserrat, St. Kitts, Nevis, and Anguilla * Guadeloupe, Martinique, St. Martin, and St. Barthelemy * Saba and St. Eustatius * St. Maarten * Dominican Republic from Cabo Caucedo eastward to Cabo Engano and then westward along the northern coast to the Dominican Republic/Haiti border * North coast of Haiti from Le Mole St Nicholas eastward to the northern border with the Dominican Republic A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Dominican Republic from the southern Haiti border eastward to Cabo Caucedo * Turks and Caicos Islands * Southeastern Bahamas Interests in the central and northwestern Bahamas and Cuba should monitor the progress of this system. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 15.1 North, longitude 62.1 West. The system is moving toward the west-northwest near 23 mph (37 km/h), and this general motion with some reduction in forward speed is expected over the next few days. On the forecast track, the system will move near or over Puerto Rico tonight, near or over Hispaniola on Thursday, and near or over the southeastern Bahamas on Friday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some increase in strength is forecast today, with weakening likely on Thursday due to land interaction, and some restrengthening possible late week. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for additional development, and a tropical storm is forecast to form later today. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km) primarily to the north and northeast of the center. A wind gust of 46 mph (74 km/h) was recently reported on St. Kitts. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are moving across portions of the Leeward Islands and will spread across the U.S. and British Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico this afternoon through Thursday morning. These conditions are forecast to reach portions of the Dominican Republic and Haiti within the warning area early Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch areas on Thursday. RAINFALL: The potential tropical cyclone is expected to produce the following rain accumulations: Across the northern Leeward Islands, British and U.S. Virgin Islands: 3 to 6 inches. Across Puerto Rico: 3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches. Across the Dominican Republic, northern Haiti and the Turks and Caicos: 3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches. Across the Inagua Islands: 4 to 8 inches, with isolated totals of 12 inches. These rainfall amounts could lead to life threatening flash flooding and mudslides, as well as potential riverine flooding. SURF: Swells generated by Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine will be affecting portions of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico during the next day or two. These swells are forecast to reach the north coast of the Dominican Republic and the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas on Thursday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
Potential Tropical Cyclone Advisory #2
BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020 500 PM AST Tue Jul 28 2020 ...DISTURBANCE FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT OR WEDNESDAY... ...EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL AND TROPICAL-STORM-CONDITIONS TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.4N 55.9W ABOUT 435 MI...700 KM ESE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of the Dominican Republic has issued a Tropical Storm Warning from Cabo Caucedo northward along the northern coast of the Dominican Republic to the northern border with Haiti SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra * U.S. Virgin Islands * British Virgin Islands * Antigua, Barbuda, Montserrat, St. Kitts, Nevis, and Anguilla * Guadeloupe, Martinique, St. Martin, and St. Barthelemy * Saba and St. Eustatius * St. Maarten * Dominica * Dominican Republic from Cabo Caucedo northward along the northern coast to the Dominican Republic/Haiti border Interests elsewhere in Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos, and the southeast and central Bahamas should monitor the progress of this system. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 14.4 North, longitude 55.9 West. The system is moving toward the west-northwest near 23 mph (37 km/h), and this general motion with some slight reduction in forward speed is expected over the next few days. On the forecast track, the system is forecast to move through the Leeward Islands on Wednesday, near or over the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico Wednesday night, and near or over Hispaniola on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is expected during the next 48 hours, and the system is forecast to become a tropical storm tonight or Wednesday. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for additional development and a tropical storm is forecast to form tonight or Wednesday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km) primarily to the northeast of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach the Leeward Islands late tonight or Wednesday morning and spread across the U.S. and British Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning. These conditions are expected to reach portions of the Dominican Republic within the warning area early Thursday. RAINFALL: The potential tropical cyclone is expected to produce the following rain accumulations: Across the northern Leeward Islands, British and U.S. Virgin Islands: 3 to 6 inches. Across Puerto Rico: 3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches. Across the Dominican Republic: 3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches. These rainfall amounts may lead to life threatening flash flooding and mudslides, as well as potential riverine flooding. Rainfall is also expected in the following locations: Across the Windward Islands: 1 to 3 inches.
Potential Trop. Cyclone. Advisory # 1
BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020 1100 AM AST Tue Jul 28 2020 ...DISTURBANCE FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BEFORE REACHING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.8N 53.7W ABOUT 585 MI...940 KM ESE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Puerto Rico, including Vieques, and Culebra, and the U.S. Virgin Islands. The government of Antigua has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for Antigua, Barbuda, the British Virgin Islands, Montserrat, St. Kitts, and Nevis. The government of France has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for Guadeloupe, Martinique, and St. Martin. The government of the Netherlands has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for Saba and St. Eustatius. The government of St. Maartin has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for St. Maartin. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra * U.S. Virgin Islands * British Virgin Islands * Antigua, Barbuda, Montserrat, St. Kitts, and Nevis * Guadeloupe, Martinique, and St. Martin * Saba and St. Eustatius * St. Maartin Interests elsewhere in the Leeward Islands and Hispaniola should monitor the progress of this system. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 13.8 North, longitude 53.7 West. The system is moving toward the west near 23 mph (37 km/h), and this general motion should continue during the next few days. On the forecast track, the system is forecast to move through the Leeward Islands on Wednesday, and near or over the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico Wednesday night, and near or over Hispaniola on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is expected during the next 48 hours, and the system is forecast to become a tropical storm tonight or Wednesday. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for additional development and a tropical storm tonight or Wednesday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km) primarily to the northeast of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach the Leeward Islands on Wednesday and spread into the U.S. and British Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning. RAINFALL: The potential tropical cyclone will produce total rain accumulation of 3 to 6 inches with maximum amounts of 10 inches across the northern Leeward Islands, British and U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. Rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches possible across the Windward Islands. This rainfall may produce life threatening flash flooding and mudslides, as well as potential riverine flooding.
Tropical Weather Outlook. July 28 8AM
Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Tue Jul 28 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: An elongated area of low pressure located about 500 miles east of the Windward Islands is producing a wide area of showers and thunderstorms. Although recent satellite imagery suggests that the system does not yet have a well-defined center, data from NOAA buoy 41040 indicate that the system is producing winds near tropical-storm-force. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system this afternoon and will provide more information about the current state of the disturbance. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for additional development and a tropical depression or tropical storm is likely to form during the next couple of days while the system moves west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph and approaches the Leeward Islands. Regardless of development, locally heavy rain is likely across portions of the Lesser Antilles beginning later today and continuing through Wednesday, especially in the Leeward Islands. These conditions will spread westward to the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico Wednesday night and Thursday. Interests on these islands should continue to monitor the progress of this system and tropical storm watches or warnings could be required for portions of the area later today. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
Tropical Weather Outlook July 27, 8pm
ABNT20 KNHC 272314 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Mon Jul 27 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Shower activity associated with a low pressure area located about 850 miles east of the Windward Islands has again become a little better organized, however the low's circulation remains broad without a well-defined center of circulation. Environmental conditions are expected to become somewhat more conducive for development, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is likely to form during the next couple of days while the system moves west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph and approaches the Leeward Islands. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains and gusty winds are likely across portions of the Leeward Islands on Wednesday and will spread westward to the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico Wednesday night and Thursday. Interests on these islands should continue to monitor the progress of this system, and tropical storm watches or warnings could be required for portions of the area on Tuesday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.