Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sun Oct 10 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Shower and thunderstorm activity remains disorganized in association with a large, non-tropical low pressure area located about 80 miles south of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina.  An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft that investigated the low earlier today found that the system was still producing a small area of gale-force winds just offshore the North Carolina outer banks. However, dry air and strong upper-level winds are expected to decrease the chance for further development of this system. The low is forecast to move slowly northeastward today, with the center remaining just offshore the eastern North Carolina coast this afternoon and tonight.  Interests in that area should continue to monitor the progress of this system and refer to local National Weather Service office products for more information. Regardless of development, intermittent periods of locally heavy rains and gusty winds will affect southeastern and eastern portions of North Carolina during the next day or so.  Additional information on this low pressure system, including gale warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

2. Recent satellite-derived surface wind data indicate that a vigorous tropical wave located about 500 miles east-southeast of the Windward Islands is producing a concentrated area of cloudiness and thunderstorms near the wave axis. Environmental conditions are forecast to be marginally conducive for some additional development of this system while it moves west-northwestward at about 15 mph over the next few days. The disturbance is expected to approach the central and northern Lesser Antilles by late Monday and early Tuesday, and interests in these areas should monitor the progress of this system.  Regardless of development, the system will produce 
locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds across portions of the 
central and northern Lesser Antilles on Tuesday, and across the 
Virgin Islands and northern Lesser Antilles on Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.