TCPAT2 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL222023 400 PM EST Thu Nov 16 2023 ...DISTURBANCE OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE GREATER ANTILLES, SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS, AND TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 400 PM EST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.2N 81.5W ABOUT 365 MI...590 KM WSW OF KINGSTON JAMAICA ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM E OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Jamaica has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for Jamaica. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for all of Haiti. The government of Cuba has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the provinces of Guantanamo, Santiago de Cuba, Holguin, Granma, and Las Tunas. The government of the Bahamas has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Jamaica * Haiti * Cuban provinces of Guantanamo, Santiago de Cuba, Holguin, Granma, and Las Tunas * Southeastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 PM EST (2100 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 15.2 North, longitude 81.5 West. The system is moving toward the north-northeast near 9 mph (15 km/h). A northeastward motion is expected to begin tonight, with an increase in forward speed into the weekend. On the forecast track, the center of the system is expected to move across Jamaica late Friday, southeastern Cuba early Saturday, and the southeastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and the disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm on Friday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible on Jamaica beginning Friday, eastern Cuba and Haiti Friday night, and the southeastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands on Saturday. RAINFALL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two is expected to produce storm total rainfall of 5 to 10 inches with maximum amounts of 16 inches across portions of Panama, Costa Rica, Jamaica, southeastern Cuba, and Hispaniola through Monday morning. These rains are likely to produce flash flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain. STORM SURGE: Minor coastal flooding is possible in areas of onshore winds along the southeastern coast of Cuba, the southeastern Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos Islands. SURF: Swells generated by the disturbance are expected to affect portions of Jamaica, Haiti, and southeastern Cuba during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.