Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Tue May 31 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Near the Yucatan Peninsula and Southeastern Gulf of Mexico: 
A large and complex area of low pressure is expected to develop near the Yucatan Peninsula and the northwestern Caribbean Sea in a couple of days, partially related to the remnants of Agatha from the eastern Pacific.  Despite strong upper-level winds over the area, this system is likely to become a tropical depression while it moves northeastward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and 
southeastern Gulf of Mexico late Thursday or Friday.  

Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is likely across portions of southeastern Mexico, the Yucatan Peninsula, Guatemala, and Belize during the next couple of days, spreading across western Cuba, southern Florida, and the Florida Keys on Friday and Saturday.  

Interests in the Yucatan Peninsula, western Cuba, the Florida Keys 
and the Florida Peninsula should monitor the progress of this 
system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

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